Saturday, 26 January 2013

Azarenka Defends Title!

(Rank/Seed)

In a dramatic three set final, (1/1) Azarenka edged (6/6) Li 46 64 63 to defend her title and secure the number one ranking.

1st Set

Both players started nervously, breaking each others serves to begin. Li settled faster though, her greater power paying dividends as she gained a 3-1 lead. Though Azarenka staged a late comeback, from 2-5 to 4-5, she still was making too many unforced errors. She doubled faulted down set point to the roars of the partisan home crowd, all too eager to bait the Belorussian after her semi final antics.

2nd Set

Azarenka started fast and broke to begin before Li had a stumble and twisted her ankle; in keeping with the run of ankle injuries throughout the week. It didn't stop the Chinese 2011 finalist though, as she reduced a 2-4 deficit to 4-4. But from there, she made a glut of unforced errors to lose the last 2 games. For a third straight major, it would go to three sets.

3rd Set

After swapping breaks of serve again, both players left the court due to the Australia Day celebration fireworks. On resumption, Li did the unthinkable; fell on her already injured ankle and banged her head on the court. Though Li seemed unfazed initially, it was clear that afterwards her ankle was troubling her. Still, Li never gave in, endearing her further to the crowd and fought on, but Azarenka was now in the zone. She broke on a Li backhand error to win a second Grand Slam title and broke down in tears after a traumatic fortnight. Overall, Azarenka hit only 18 winners to 28 unforced errors, compared to Li's 36:57 ratio and there was an incredible 16 breaks of serve, 9 to Azarenka, 7 to Li.

Thursday, 24 January 2013

Azarenka vs Li

Who will win the 2013 Australian Open?
 
 
Azarenka is the defending champion with a chance of maintaining her number one status. This is her third Grand Slam final and she has always played well in them, crushing Sharapova here last year and serving for the match against Serena at last year's US Open. She is on an eight match winning streak, having made the semis in Brisbane before withdrawing and has only dropped one set all fortnight; to Jamie Hampton in the third round. However, she hasn't played an opponent ranked higher than 25 and also has had a few injury problems, some related to nerves.
 
Li is a former finalist here, leading a set before losing to Clijsters in 2011. This is her first chance of winning a slam since she won her only slam to date in Paris 2011. She already has one title this year in Shenzhen and has only lost one match; a fatigued beating to Radwanska in the Sydney semis. However, she's back and better than ever, not dropping a set in beating the likes of world number 4 Radwanska and world number 2 Sharapova. Can she beat the top two in the same tournament for the first time?
 
Azarenka lead the head to head 5-4, winning the last 4 between the WTA Championships 2011 and 2012. However, twice in that period it went to three sets and Li has won both of their past Grand Slam matches, at the Australian and French Opens 2011. Ironically, the two finals they've played have both come on Australian soil, in the Gold Coast 2008, which Li won in three and Sydney 2012, which Azarenka won in three. To me, Li is in the best form of her life and I favour her to go the whole way here in Melbourne this time. I think she will win, but it will have to be in straight sets. If it goes the distance, I think Azarenka will win.
 


Li Shocks Sharapova!

The semi finals were completed on Thursday and one of them generated a rather unexpected upset.

(Rank/Seed)

1/1 Azarenka ended the fairytale run of (25/29) Stephens 61 64 to reach a second straight Australian Open (AO) final. The first set wasn't even close as Stephens no doubt struggled to refocus after yesterdays drama. The second however saw Azarenka hurt her ankle and get broken for the first time in the third game. From there on in, it was a contest with Stephens breaking back from 2-4 and 3-5 down, saving five match points in the latter as Azarenka grew increasingly nervous. Azarenka then took a surprising medical time out to regain her composure and returned to finish off the match on her sixth match point. Stephens will now crack the top 20 for the first time and Azarenka is close to being guaranteed her number one ranking.

6/6 Li upset the apple cart in taking out (2/2) Sharapova 62 62. From the off, Li was sharp, breaking in the first and fifth games to carve out a 4-1 lead. Sharapova constantly struggled to return Li's sliced second serve and made many errors off her backhand. She managed one break back, but Li broke for a third time to win the set. After a few close games, that saw Sharapova hold twice, Li rallied to win five straight games and the match. The games were often very close, with Maria often having break point, but each time Li remained composed and Sharapova would error, winning only 1 of 7 break points. Sharapova's number one hopes have now gone and it leaves a sour taste to a competition that so far had been so easy for her, whilst for Li she makes her second AO final and her first Grand Slam final since winning the 2011 French Open where she beat Maria in the semis too. It seems as if the lack of test went against Maria, who often seemed slow and off the pace, hitting 32 unforced errors to just 17 winners, compared to the 21:18 winner:error ratio of Li.

Wednesday, 23 January 2013

Stephens Sends Serena Packing!

In the match of the tournament so far, 19 year old Sloane Stephens did what so many other women have failed to do in the last year; beat Serena Williams!

(Rank/Seed)

1/1 Azarenka opened the day with a close fought 75 61 win over Kuznetsova in the QF. Trailing 1-4 as Kuznetsova mixed up the game, Victoria looked in trouble. But from there on in, she found her baseline game and regained control. Svetlana struggled early on in the 2nd set and a stumble on the baseline certainly didn't help her ankle, as she rather meekly exited the AO QF for a 3rd time in as many attempts.

Most people expected Victoria to meet (3/3) Serena in the semis. However, (25/29) Stephens had other ideas. The match started in a subdued fashion, neither player comfortable under the hype. Stephens game was non existent as Serena reeled off 5 games from 3-3 to lead 63 20 without hitting her top game. However, after breaking back, Stephens got the benefit of an unfortunate injury of Serena's back whilst she chased down a drop return. After treatment, Serena's serve was severely hampered, but from the baseline she was still tough. Stephens served for the set at 5-3 and even held set point, but got nervous and let Serena back, before ultimately closing out the set 75. The 3rd was as dramatic as they come with Serena beginning to loosen up and Stephens also mixing up her game sublimely at the net. After breaking to lead 4-3, Serena's camp sensed blood but as if by magic, Stephens began to fire and reeled off the last 3 games of the match to reach her 1st Grand Slam semi, winning 36 75 64. It snapped Serena's 20 match, 3 tournament winning streak and was her 1st loss since Cincinnati to Kerber last summer. No Grand Slam for Serena!

Now, Stephens has to right herself to take on Azarenka in a 1st meeting on Thursday. I can't see Stephens pulling off 2 epic wins, but as the 1st American teen to reach this stage of a slam since Serena herself back at the US Open 2001, I put nothing past her.

Tuesday, 22 January 2013

Li Stops Radwanska Whilst Sharapova Strolls

The 1st 2 quarter finals were played on Tuesday and one of them followed form whilst the other saw a minor upset as I predicted.

2/2 Sharapova wasn't quite at her best but nonetheless put away (19/19) Makarova 62 62. Only broken once all match, she hit with consistent depth and punished her opponents spinning second serve. No woman's dropped fewer games en route to the semis here since 1988, as she has dropped only 9 games and is now through to her 6th AO semi final, maintaining her perfect winning ratio in QF here.

6/6 Li ended (4/4) Radwanska's 13 match, 26 set winning streak with a 75 63 win. The 1st set saw Radwanska twice go up a break, including serving for the 1st set at 5-4. With the recent win over Li in Sydney, it looked as if she was set to seize control. Each time though, Li broke straight back and under Roderiguez has learned to control her emotions and stay calm. Despite some poor serving, Li's ground strokes were deep and proved too tough for the Pole to handle. Despite going 0-2 down in the 2nd, she then went on a tear of 4 straight games, whilst Agnieszska often made the wrong decisions to come into net on nothing balls. Li maintained her perfect AO quarter final winning ratio to reach her 3rd semi in the last 4 years, whilst Agnieszka failed for a 4th time in 4 attempts to go beyond this point at the AO and incurred her 1st loss of the season.

So, Maria and Li! Sharapova leads the series 8-4 and won all 3 2012 meetings, twice winning a set to love. Maria's won her last 3 AO semis, whilst Li has gone 1-1 in the 2 previous. However, each time it's been close and Li did beat Maria in their biggest slam meeting yet; the FO semis 2011. I'll say Sharapova will win, but she'll lose more than 4 games!

Kuznetsova Battles Past Wozniacki

The 4th round's now complete and I can't believe I predicted 7 out of 8 quarter finalists correctly at the beginning of the week! I only got Kerber wrong!

(Rank/Seed)

1/1 Azarenka got back on track, cruising past Hobart champion Vesnina 61 61.

3/3 Serena was equally ruthless against a tense (15/14) Kirilenko, winning 62 60.

Kuznetsova emulated her 3 set win over (10/10) Wozniacki in Sydney with a 62 26 75 win. After cruising through the 1st set, Kuznetsova became undone in the 2nd as Wozniacki stepped it up on the backhand and she struggled with blistered feet. She was 2 points from losing in the 3rd too, serving at 4-5 30-30, but each time the pressure was on she calmly hit a winner, usually on a volley. In the end, she was consistently too strong, pressuring the Dane's erratic forehand. It's Kuznetsova's 1st GS quarter final since the FO 2011 and only her 3rd in Oz, whilst its Wozniacki's earliest exit here since 2010.

(25/29) Stephens made her 1st GS quarter final, edging unseeded Serb Jovanovski 61 36 75 to become the 1st American outside of the Williams sisters to go this far at a slam since Melanie Oudin back in 2009 at the US Open.

So, Azarenka will play the only unseeded quarter finalist, Kuznetsova ranked 75. The Russian won 4 of their 1st 5 meetings, but these were all in and before 2009, with Victoria winning both meetings in 2012. I favour Azarenka to win, but it will be close. Williams and Stephens will meet in a repeat of their Brisbane quarter final 2 weeks ago. It's the 1st all American clash this deep in the AO draw since 2005 and I feel Serena will win, but if there's going to be an upset, it will be right here!

Sunday, 20 January 2013

Kerber Ousted In 4th Round

The 1st 4 quarter finalists were decided on Sunday and all but one followed the rankings.

(Rank/Seed)

2/2 Sharapova killed Flipkens 61 60, making her the most uncharitable player since the 128 player draw was introduced to Melbourne in 1988. She has now won 5 of her 6 Australian Open 4th rounds played.

4/4 Radwanska stretched her straight sets winning streak to 13 matches with a 62 64 win over former finalist (13/13) Ivanovic. She's the 2nd woman after Dementieva in 2009 to win 2 titles before then reach at least the quarters at the Australian Open, as well as improving to a perfect 4-0 in AO quarter finals.

(19/19) Makarova did it again! Just like last year when she surprised Serena in the 4th round here, she stunned (5/5) Kerber 75 64. Though she was nervous, letting a 5-2 1st set lead slip, she ultimately forced the play more (hitting 31 winners) and also defended brilliantly in a match between 2 lefties. Kerber was bothered by a back complaint which affected her serve, but couldn't take advantage of 2 break points at 4-3 in the 2nd set; losing one after an immense baseline and net exchange between the two. Makarova emulates her quarter final result from last year.

6/6 Li also kept up the good work, coming from 3-5 and set point down in the tie break to edge (18/18) Goerges 76(6) 61 in a first meeting. Having not gone beyond the 4th round of a Slam since winning in Paris back in 2011, this must have been a welcome relief.

So, Sharapova will face Makarova in a repeat of last years quarter. Ekaterina is really looking forward to the challenge, but Maria's form's been the best of the tournament so far. She's also never lost to Makarova, nor in an AO quarter final before, so I pick her to win comfortably. Radwanska and Li's harder to pick because they're both experienced and have a close head to head. Radwanska has just beaten Li in Sydney which will help, but I felt Li was very tired in that match. Last year, Li destroyed Radwanska 3 times and unlike her opponent, has never lost an AO quarter final, whilst Agnieszska's never won one. I'm going to say it will be close, but I'm favouring Li slightly.

Saturday, 19 January 2013

Azarenka Passes 1st Test

As the last places in the 4th round were gobbled up, some were made to work harder than others, notably Azarenka.

(Rank/Seed)

1/1 Azarenka battled past a courageous Hampton 64 46 62. For most of the match, Azarenka was forced to watch forehand winners sail past her (Hampton hit 41 winners in total, 27 off the forehand) as she struggled to keep up, letting a 5-1 1st set lead become 5-4 and then going down a break early in the 3rd. Fortunately for Victoria, Hampton began to struggle with a back injury towards the end of the second set and wasn't able to move as effectively afterwards. Still, Hampton is yet another up and coming youngster whose beginning to push the big guns (she's the only player this year to hold a set point against Radwanska) and Azarenka was full of admiration for the young American.

3/3 Serena overcame a 0-3 2nd set blip to ease past Morita 61 63, extending her winning streak to 19 matches.

10/10 Wozniacki dealt with Tsurenko nicely 64 63 for her best Slam performance in a year.

Elsewhere, Hobart champion Vesnina saved a match point down 46 45 to beat (16/16) Vinci 46 76(4) 64 and (15/14) Kirilenko edged past 20th seed Wickmayer 76(4) 63. Kuznetsova out rallied Suarez Navarro 62 46 63, Stephens ended Robson's run 75 63 and Jovanovski took out veteran Date Krumm 62 76(3).

Friday, 18 January 2013

Sharapova Aces Venus

The 3rd round began on Thursday and the contest of the day (in spirit at least) was that between two former number ones and multiple Grand Slam champions, Maria Sharapova and Venus Williams.

(Rank/Seed)

2/2 Sharapova was in some of the best form of her career, overpowering a shell shocked Williams on the way to a 61 63 win. Though she dropped a game for the 1st time this tournament, for a while it looked as if that would be the only one as she returned Venus's second serve brilliantly and also defended very well en route to 61 30 lead. Venus couldn't find her 1st serve and even though the crowd helped her make a mini comeback towards the end; breaking for the 1st time when Maria served for it at 5-1, today belonged to the Russian who's making one big statement.

4/4 Radwanska calmly ended Watson's run 63 61.

5/5 Kerber handled wild card Keys power in the end, 62 75 on her 25th birthday.

6/6 Li powered past hit and miss Cirstea 64 61.

Elsewhere, (13/13) Ivanovic outdid her compatriot Jankovic 75 62 and (18/18) Goerges came through an epic against Zheng 63 16 75; from 3-5 down too. The biggest upset of the day saw (11/11) Bartoli lose early here once again, 67(4) 63 64 to (19/19) Makarova, a woman who she had never lost more than 2 games to in two previous meetings. Belgium's unseeded Flipkens also made her 1st career Grand Slam fourth round, beating qualifier Savinykh 62 46 63.

Thursday, 17 January 2013

Robson Knocks Out Kvitova!

All was going well for the top seeds as the 2nd round wrapped up on Thursday; until the final match on Rod Laver Arena that witnessed a classic battle.

(Rank/Seed)

1/1 Azarenka was unusually pumped up as she crushed Daniilidou 61 60!

3/3 Serena showed no signs of her ankle injury in beating Muguruza 62 60!

World number 50, 18 year old Robson outlasted (8/8) Kvitova 26 63 119 in the final match on Thursday. Despite trailing 0-3 in the 3rd and serving for the match at 6-5, Robson mentally outlasted an often anxious Kvitova to take her 2nd career top 10 win, having beaten Li at last years US Open. Though she hit an incredible 18 aces (sometimes on 2nd serves), Kvitova was plagued by an equal amount of double faults. Still, the stats seem to show that Kvitova should have won the match; she had a higher 1st serve percentage, hit more aces, had a cleaner winner:error ratio and won 3 more points than her opponent. However, Robson had the nerve and with Watson also reaching the 3rd round, its a 1st at the Australian Open for Brits since 1987! This section of the draw is now wide open as I predicted and Stephens is up next for Robson; the woman who beat her last week in Hobart.

10/10 Wozniacki held off a late second set surge from 16 year old Vekic to win 61 64.

Elsewhere, (15/14) Kirilenko and (16/16) Vinci won in straight sets, whilst (17/17) Safarova was beaten 75 75 by Jovanovski and (20/21) Lepchenko was beaten by Hobart champion Vesnina 64 62. Wickmayer, Stephens and Kuznetsova also won, the latter beating 26th seed Hsieh, whilst Date Krumm beat Peer to become the 2nd oldest woman to reach the 3rd round of a Slam in the open era!

Wednesday, 16 January 2013

Stosur Crumbles Under Pressure!

As the 2nd round began, predictably there was some upsets, but most seeds held firm.

(Rank/Seed)

Though it didn't concern her, (2/2) Sharapova became the 1st woman since Wendy Turnbull at the 1985 Australian Open to win 2 matches 60 60 at the Open, as she crushed Doi by that scoreline emphatically in her 2nd round. She will now face Venus Williams, who beat Cornet 63 63. I somehow doubt that Maria will win a 3rd straight double bagel!

4/4 Radwanska didn't have it all her own way against Begu on Rod Laver Arena, but made the most of her erratic opponent to win 63 63. She will now face British survivor Watson, who saved 3 match points to beat Pervak 46 76(7) 62!

5/5 Kerber waltzed past Hradecka 63 61; a 5th win out of 5 against the Czech. She will now meet wild card Keys, who upset 30th seed Paszek and had a good run in Sydney.

6/6 Li pulled through her 1st test against Govortsova, saving 2 set points to pull through 62 75 and set up a meeting with Cirstea, the 27th seed who beat her at Wimbledon last year.

Sadly, for (9/9) Stosur, time ran out again for her in Melbourne. Facing Zheng in a rematch of their Sydney clash, Sam very nearly avenged the loss, coming back to lead 46 61 5-2 with 2 breaks. From there on in though, she admittedly choked and Zheng came back to win 64 16 75. Stosur has till never progressed beyond the 4th round here.

Elsewhere, (11/11) Bartoli, (18/18) Goerges and (19/19) Makarova all won in straight sets, whilst (13/13) Ivanovic set up a 3rd round against compatriot Jankovic with a 3 sets win over Chan. However, (14/15) Sydney finalist Cibulkova was predictably beaten early by qualifier Savinykh 76(6) 64, whilst 23rd Zakapolova was also beaten. 

Tuesday, 15 January 2013

Errani First Big Seed To Fall

Unlike the bottom half of the draw, which saw only one seed exit, the top half saw 5 seeds leave; some very surprising ones too!

(Rank/Seed)

1/1 Defending champion Azarenka came back from a second set wobble, trailing 0-3 15-40 to beat Niculescu 61 64.

3/3 Serena, tournament favourite, aced Gallovits-Hall 60 60, despite rolling her ankle up 4-0 in the 1st. Serena claimed only a fatal injury would stop her competing on Thursday!

The 1st big upset came when former quarter finalist Suarez Navarro beat last years quarter finalist (7/7) Errani 64 64 in a battle of the spin. This was her earliest slam exit since the 2011 US Open.

8/8 Kvitova edged past Schiavone 64 26 62, despite hitting over 40 unforced errors.

10/10 Wozniacki pulled off a brilliant comeback to edge Lisicki 26 63 63, from 0-3 down in the 3rd! Lisicki fell apart, hitting 57 errors in the match but Wozniacki's defied my prediction and now has a serious chance to go deep in her section of the draw thanks to other upsets.

(15/14) Kirilenko, (16/16) Vinci, (17/17) Safarova and (20/21) Lepchenko all advanced in straight sets, whilst (12/12) Petrova was bundled out 62 60 at the hands of veteran Date Krumm. Kimiko became the oldest ever winner of a main draw match here at 42 years old, whilst Petrova still seems to be struggling with some unexplained injury. A further notable result is the remarkable loss of Pavlyuchenkova, who played so well two weeks ago, beating Kvitova and Kerber in Brisbane to reach the final. She lost to the woman she beat in the semi finals there, qualifier Lesia Tsurenko 75 36 75! Other seeds losing were Yaroslava Shvedova and Urszula Radwanska, whilst Kuznetsova won in straight sets.





Monday, 14 January 2013

Successful Seeds On Day One

As the Australian Open got underway, I was expecting a few 1st round upsets as there always is in the 1st round of Grand Slams. However, I was pleasantly surprised, as only one of the 32 seeds lost in the 1st round; the in form 32nd seed Mona Barthel.

(Rank/Seed)

2/2 Sharapova steam rolled Puchkova 60 60. You'd have never known it was her 1st competitive match since the WTA Champs last autumn and that she'd struggled lately with a sore collarbone. Though her opponent didn't play all that badly, Maria overpowered her from the off and also moved very well.

4/4 Radwanska extended her winning streak to 10 matches, beating her Australian opponent Bobusic 75 60, despite her opponent serving for the set and windy conditions.

5/5 Kerber beat Svitolina 62 64, her easiest win of the year so far.

6/6 Li eased past Karatantcheva 61 63, continuing her strong 9-1 win loss record this year.

9/9 Stosur finally overcame her Australian struggles to avenge a loss in Osaka last year to Chang 76(3) 63. Though she'd never lost 6 matches in a row in her career, nor come away from the Australian swing without a win since 2002, a 6th successive loss in Australia seemed likely. However, after serving for the set at 6-5, Chang's game proved too erratic. Still, despite her win, she has a huge challenge next; her Sydney conqueror Zheng!

Elsewhere, top 20 players Bartoli, Ivanovic and Makarova moved through in straight sets, whilst Cibulkova (coming off her Sydney double bagel loss) and Goerges had to come through in 3. In addition, Venus Williams looked superb in her defeat of Voskoboeva 61 60!

Friday, 11 January 2013

Pre Open Predictions

The 2013 Australian Open begins soon, so here's my look at the draw and my predictions.

1st quarter- Azarenka should have no trouble reaching the quarters, even if Vinci reaches the 4th round (which I think she will). I feel Lisicki may beat Wozniacki in the opener, leaving Pavlyuchenkova or Kuznetsova to come through that section as I feel Errani will be beaten by either Russian. Prediction- Azarenka vs Kuznetsova QF

2nd quarter- Serena is almost a dead cert, with no one except perhaps Shvedova to trouble her. The other section's trickier as I have no faith in Kvitova or Petrova, who I think will lose early. I'm more inclined to favour young American Sloane Stephens from this section. Prediction- Serena vs Stephens QF

3rd quarter- Form players Radwanska and Li should cruise through here, as Stosur wont make it past both Chang and Zheng; terrible luck for the Australian as both have beaten her recently.  Ivanovic may reach the 4th round, but I think Barthel's more of a danger to Aga. Prediction- Li vs Radwanska QF

4th quarter- Kerber has a good shot because Bartoli almost always loses early in Melbourne, but that's if the German stops this recent spell of letting her opponents back into matches. Sharapova's biggest threat comes from Venus Williams, who may be waiting in the 3rd round as I see Cibulkova failing to reach the last 16. Prediction- Kerber vs Sharapova QF